Value hunting is universal. It is applicable to both life and business. And it should apply to football betting as well. Many punters fail to appreciate the significance of value betting. This is the most important BUT also the most misunderstood concept in football betting. Value is the real key to making profit in the long run.
WHAT IS VALUE
Simply, value is found when you can obtain an object for less than what it is actually worth. The following illustration will clearly explain this.
You are an antique enthusiast and you are browsing around an antiques shop. You notice a nice old vase on offer for $100. You know you could resell the vase for at least $120. This means there is VALUE in buying the vase. The key here is your KNOWLEDGE that the vase is actually worth $120.
However, if you buy the vase with the intention to sell it but WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE how much you could sell the vase for, then this is not a wise purchase and it is not a value buy.
The same principle applies to football betting. In sports, the true value of the outcome of a match is expressed by the probability of that outcome happening. If you can get a price which is HIGHER than the one indicated by the probability, then you have found value.
So, the prices (or odds) offered by the bookmakers are related to the probability of that outcome happening. Now, how do we determine whether the odds are of value?
PRICES (OR ODDS)
Fair prices (or odds) are set if the result is expected to be a 50/50 situation.
Let’s take the example of the flipping of a coin. As there are two sides of the coin, the chances of heads and tails are 50% each. The formula to calculate the odds in such a 50/50 situation is 100 / 50 = 2. Therefore, odds of 2 are called FAIR ODDS.
So, if we are betting on coin-throws, when the price offered is lower than 2, then it has no value because we will definitely lose. However, if the price is higher than 2, say 2.10, it means the probability for the win is 5% higher (2.10/2.00). This is value.
HOW TO CALCULATE IF A BET HAS VALUE
Before we know how to find value, we must first understand how to calculate probability and value.
The formula is:
Probability = 1 / 0dds
So, if an event is offered at 2.50, then it has a probability of
1 / 2.5 = 40% chance of happening ACCORDING TO THE BOOKMAKER.
If you estimate the ‘true’ chance is greater than 40%, then you have found value.
The formula is:
Odds x Percentage / 100 > 1.0 (The figure must be greater than 1.0 to have value)
In the above example, if you estimate the percentage to be 50%, the value calculation will be :
2.50 x 50 / 100 = 1.25 (This is value as the figure is greater than 1.0)
HOW TO FIND VALUE
The keys to value punting are:
* How accurate you can estimate the winning percentage of the outcome.
* Getting the best odds for that event.
Calculating the winning chance is not an easy task. Finding value is 100% subjective. One may deem odds of 1.20 is value but another may disagree. Some punters feel that for odds of 1.20, the event must have a probability chance of at least 83% because they have to win five out of six such 1.20 events to be in profit.
So, finding value odds is very individualistic. Sometimes, odds of 1.50 represents value. Sometimes, even 15.00 is not worth the shot.
After researching the usual selection criteria, shortlist your betting targets. Then create your own estimations on the percentage of Home win, a draw or Away win. No strategy is set in stone. You have to try out various methods and over time, you will realise how certain factors will influence the outcome more than others.
Time, experience and practice are essential in ‘perfecting’ your methods.
If one of your value bet loses, it does not mean the bet does not have value. A punter must learn to accept that not all bets can be winning bets. The decisive factor is to find value in your picks. Of course, the more the number of value bets, the higher the profit you can achieve.
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