In early July of 2009, I began noticing a pattern developing that looked quite promising. I noticed that short-priced favorites that had three things in common were winning a lot of races.
On July 19, 2009, I began documenting the results of horses that went to post with these three factors in common. I concluded the study on August 31, 2009 after observing 155 ‘playable’ races.
During this study, 92 of the 155 horses that went to post having these three factors in common won – a 59 percent win rate. These horses placed a total of 124 times – that is 80 percent. They were one of the top three finishers in the race a total of 147 times. They were in-the-money 95 percent of the time.
Are dollar signs flashing through your mind right now?
The three factors these horses had in common were:
1. Each horse was the morning line favorite listed at odds of 9/5 or less.
2. Each horse had a Brisnet Profit Line that was 9/5 or less.
3. Each horse went to post as the favorite with final odds less than 2/1.
Now, before you get too excited, let me tell you the bad news. You could not make any money betting these horses.
Yes, you read that correctly! I found a selection method that produced 59 percent winners, required no handicapping, took just seconds to act upon, yet I could not have made a profit had I bet them.
A token bet of $2 on each of these 155 selections would have required an outlay of $310. The 92 winners returned a total of $309.80. So, after playing 155 races over a span of six weeks, you would have had a loss of 20 cents. To be fair, that would have provided most racegoers with a lot of action and they would not have lost a great deal of money. But it is not the way I want to spend my time at the races.
The same $310 bet to place on these 155 horses would have resulted in a loss of $7.30. Show betting would have resulted in a loss of $11.50.
Hopefully you will take from this article the realization that betting on favorites (especially short-priced favorites) is not the way to make money at the races.
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